marți, 13 aprilie 2010

Boala depozitelor in Spania

A price war for deposits between Spanish lenders could be the catalyst for mass failure of the country's savings bank system, according to bankers and analysts.
Troubles for the regional savings banks, orcajas, could even trigger sovereign debt problems in the eurozone's fourth-biggest economy.
BBVA, Spain's number two private sector bank, decided last week to match a 4 per cent deposit rate offer by Santander, its bigger rival.
The move will attract business away from the country's unlistedcajas, depriving them of crucial funding.
"This will kill thecajas, " one European investment banking adviser said. "This is one of the last nails in the coffin."
For the local government-backed cajas, the pressure comes on top of their vast exposure to the collapsing Spanish real estate market. Spain's 46 cajas account for almost half of the country's banking market.
Unable to diversify abroad like commercial banks,cajas invested heavily in Spain's housing boom. Some, like the now-failed Caja Castilla La Mancha, took direct equity stakes in local property groups.
Two-thirds of the cajas' assets are funded by deposits. Replacing deposits with wholesale funding would be challenging. The sector has been virtually unable to launch issuance unless it is government guaranteed or in the form of covered bonds, which are underpinned by fixed assets.
Morgan Stanley estimates that savings bank losses could cost the state – via the Fund for Bank Restructuring – €43bn.
"Considering that the FROB has been funded by €12bn, this would put the additional financing needs at around €30bn," it said.
In an interview in Monday's Financial Times, Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sought to distance himself from talk of crisis. "We have a plan, a credible, quantified plan . . . If we have to make more cuts or demand more austerity, then we will do it."

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